AI IS EATING VENTURE CAPITAL (2022-2026)

Q1 2026 marks a structural reconfiguration of global venture capital, with AI startups attracting nearly $300 billion in funding. In 2022, AI deals accounted for 22% of global venture investment. Four years later, that figure has risen to 81%. Capital has become increasingly concentrated in foundation models and compute infrastructure. Fewer deals, larger rounds, and unprecedented concentration now define the market.

Four financings dominated the quarter: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion). Together, they accounted for $188 billion, exceeding total global venture investment in Q4 2025 ($138.6 billion). The remaining capital was distributed across thousands of startups spanning fintech, biotech, climate tech, and SaaS. Adjusted for inflation, funding directed to non-AI sectors fell below levels seen in previous years.

For AI founders, the environment remains highly favorable: abundant capital, aggressive growth expectations, and limited pressure to achieve near-term profitability. For founders outside the AI ecosystem, however, the landscape has changed. Fundraising cycles are longer, performance thresholds are higher, and valuations have become increasingly compressed.

Under the current scenario, if AI delivers on its productivity promises, the returns could be transformational and long-lasting. However, if the technology fails to meet expectations or valuations undergo a sharp correction, the resulting destruction of value could extend across institutional portfolios, labor markets, and broader economic confidence.

AI IS EATING VENTURE CAPITAL (2022-2026)

By DealMaker Insights | DealMaker